182: Hate It Or Love It | LiveDuel | Will Martin & Laura Brkic
On the show this week, we’ve got Will Martin and Laura Brkić from LiveDuel, a DeFi-powered digital sports market with live fan engagement. LiveDuel supports decentralized sports betting built on blockchain to give you a fairer deal than traditional sports betting sites.
This episode of MoneyNeverSleeps is sponsored by Philip Lee, one of Ireland’s fastest-growing corporate law firms and expert advisors at the heart of the Dublin and London start-up, fintech and crypto communities.
LiveDuel are the fifth of ten founding teams forming the Launchpool Web3 Techstars Accelerator Class of 2022 that we’ve got on the show over the next two months.
In this episode, Pete Townsend talks to Will and Laura about how they got together with Alex Luce to drive LiveDuel forward, what LiveDuel is and how it works, replacing ‘the house’ in sports betting markets with DeFi liquidity pools, and staying close to the long-term vision while executing in the short term.
HIGHLIGHTS:
Will Martin on the genesis of the LiveDuel idea:
“Back in economics class, I learned about things like traders noticing price differences in oil between markets in London and New York and profiting on that. My clever brain went ‘I wonder if you could do that for sports betting,’ because there was a new thing called Betfair at the time, and Europe was going through what America's going through right now in terms of a sports betting revolution with loads of betting companies starting up.
“It used to be all about getting your bet in before the game started. But when I was doing sports betting arbitrage and sports betting trading, I fell in love with the idea of everything going ‘live’. There was an innovation in the industry of real-time delivery of prices and being able to execute trades.
“The ‘duel’ is that people love having their own opinions – sports is always the great debate. People will have opposing opinions on whether someone played well or not. LiveDuel revolves around these two sets of ideas, the ‘live’ and the ‘duel’.”
Laura Brkić on how she started out as a product designer:
“When I started out, I actually wanted to become an artist, which is quite different but also very similar at the same time.
“Artists need to have the obvious skills like painting and drawing, but the core of being an artist is being able to observe, analyze, and then create something new based on what you observed. These skills are very useful when you are building a digital product.
“I didn't want to be a starving artist because I didn't like that life, and I understood that you could use all these skills in order to make something that is needed in today's economy.”
Will Martin on what’s at the core of LiveDuel:
“LiveDuel is a DeFi-powered sports prediction market and live fan engagement platform. Prediction markets can be in sports, stock markets, or other areas, but we’re very much focused on sports. What I love about sports is everyone wants to know the outcome. Everyone thinks they might know the outcome, or everyone will have an opinion on what's going to happen.
“We’ve gamified that while also having a financial incentive for the people who have the most knowledge or can predict the future. When you look at markets, the financialization of them makes them more efficient over time, or at least that's the general concept behind the stock market.
“As a huge sports fan and as a former trader, I wanted to bring the two together and see what value we could deliver.
“When you look at the sports betting industry, it's very much a ‘the house always wins’ philosophy. The reason they win is that they include a five to 20% fee – ‘the vig’. By removing the house, you don't need to charge such high rates. We can deliver a better product to the end-user in that they have a fairer outcome.”
Will Martin on the merging of sports data with prediction markets:
“We've seen the data explosion in sports, with the US leading the way with all the data that comes out of each individual US sport. For example, baseball is pretty much a game of stats, hence Moneyball and being able to sign players that were undervalued that delivered [the Oakland A’s] a division title.
“Every season in soccer there are new stats being created and marketed. Amazon have done a great job with next-gen stats - they're doing it for the NFL, rugby, soccer, and Formula One - because each individual game is producing so much data. Each individual data point is something that can be tracked and measured and correlated and put into a model that, in the future, might help people better predict the outcome for sports games.
“We haven't even gotten into the areas around the data that's coming off the individual athletes. There's a big debate right now on who owns the data coming in from the athletes like heart rate, rest-recovery, V02 max, and distance covered. These are all interesting data points that could potentially form part of a prediction model to help people predict sports outcomes.
Will Martin on the wisdom of the crowd:
“What I love about prediction markets is it's the wisdom of the crowd. I read the book ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’ when I was in first-year economics. The theory is that if you get a large enough pool of people to make a prediction that it will be better than any one person or any one expert in that group.
“That's what I really love about prediction markets and markets in general, is that whatever the price says or whatever the trading figure is, that's everyone's best guess at that moment in time. It doesn't mean it's right, but that’s the combined wisdom of hundreds or thousands or hundreds of thousands of participants. So yeah, I’m very excited to see the coming together of prediction markets and data.”
Laura Brkic on keeping things simple for the user with the complexity of available data:
“You need to understand the data and think about new ways to use the data, but also keep in mind the main goals with the data you’ve got.
“You want to abstract everything that people don't really need to know and do that in a way that people really understand. You can have all your ideas, your sketches and all of the data and graphs, but then you have to test everything by showing it to as many people as you can.
“Ideally, when you’ve got about 15 people who really understand what you’re showing them [you’re in good shape]. It’s a process of gathering lots of ideas, and then narrowing it all down – sometimes it will work and sometimes it won’t, and you have to be ready to bin all of your ideas and the work that you did.
“If people don't understand it, it's more of an obstruction for your user experience - sometimes you just don't need that extra graph.”
Will Martin on ‘bringing down the house’:
“There might be a hundred people that want to bet on Spurs winning the Champions League whereas 10 people might want to bet on Arsenal. In a traditional exchange, 10 of those trades would get matched off each other, and then there are another 90 Spurs bets that will go unmatched. Traditionally, the house would take the other side of those 90 bets.
“But with a peer-to-peer exchange, 90 bets will go unmatched – solving that problem is the key part of LiveDuel. The more I got into decentralized finance and the world of crypto, I saw the opportunity to attract liquidity providers, create liquidity pools, and then the end-users effectively trade against the liquidity pools.
“We'll move that liquidity to the different markets where there's demand. This weekend it might be Spurs vs. Arsenal and then on Sunday evening, it might be the Red Sox vs. the Yankees. It’s basically like a virtuous cycle moving around, picking up the fees or ‘the vig’ and delivering a return for the liquidity providers.”
Laura Brkic on the first big challenge for LiveDuel:
“Get the initial 1,000 users - it grows exponentially from there because if 1,000 people really love your product, then you're able to scale it.
“If it grows in a natural way where people are recommending your product and their friends are also using it, it’s a more stable structure to build on rather than having a huge marketing budget to attract a lot of new users that might not stick around. it.
“If you have one person who came in quite early with your product, you also have a loyal friend who will use your product. When you have a connection with your users and you're reaching out to get their perspective and you make the product better based on their opinions, they feel the product is right for them. They feel a better connection with the whole product and the brand.
“So, decentralization is not just about decentralizing finance, but also decentralizing the way the product gets built. Obviously, we’re responsible for the product, but we can also give it to users to decide, which is the next big feature that we're going to implement or the next market we open up in the app.”
LINKS:
Connect with Will Martin and Laura Brkić and learn more about LiveDuel
Episode title inspired by ‘Hate It or Love It' by the Game
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0:11 Hey there, I'm Pete Townsend. This is money, never sleeps. We look inside the minds of entrepreneurs, and at the crossover of startups, Enterprise Finance, technology and Life. As We Know It, This episode of money, never sleeps is sponsored by Phillip Lee one of Ireland's fastest growing corporate law firms and expert. Advisors the heart of the Dublin and London startup fintech and crypto communities. On the show this week we've got and well Martin founder and CEO of Life duel and um Laura burkitt's. And I'm a product designer at level five tools. Defy power. Digital Sports Market would live fan engagement live tool supports decentralized sports betting built on blockchain to give you a fair deal than traditional sports betting sites. Like Twitter, the fifth of 10 founding teams formed the launch pool, web three textures accelerator class of 2020 to that we've got on the show over the next couple of months. In this episode I talk to Will and Laura about how they got together with Alex loose to drive live dual forward, what live dual is and how it works.
1:08 Replacing the house in sports, betting markets with defy liquidity pools, and staying close to the long-term Vision while executing in the short term. All right here on money, never sleeps. Listen, just to get started. Why don't we do this? We'll share your back story, how you got to this point and then we'll ask Laura to do the same thing. Yeah, sure. Sounds good. It's my own background is in economics and computer science. One of his in University learned about Arbitrage in the financial market. So, back of Economics class, learned about price difference in oil between say, London and New York and Traders. Make them a profit by it.
1:50 Scooting to trades and noticing a price difference. Since my clever brain went. I wonder if you could do that for sports betting, because there was a new thing called Betfair at the time and Europe was kind of going through what America is going through right now in terms of a sports, betting Revolution with loads of betting companies starting up. So made a lot of money doing that over a number of years had kind of identified, my career, when I was quite young, I wanted to be a wall street-type Trader on the floor barking at ideas. Thrown hand signals of what you're buying and selling. And so, did that for a couple of years was very different was all on a computer for screens, very, very boring but as working the day of the flash crash in May 2010 trillion lost in like 15 minutes. Thankfully, it was not in any trades at the time but the market kind of bends back very quick and that was my kind of hands up in the air moment of I'm never going to be able to compete with Bots algorithms, high frequency Traders because I was reading fed reports job reports, inflation numbers, loading screens and charts.
2:50 To get an advantage but when you're competing against computers who bought and sold tens of hundreds of Millions worth of stock in a second. By the time you even turn on one of those four screens that I was using. And that's when I kind of went that's actually not for me. So later on that Year my brother got married in India and so I decided to take the long route home use that as the kind of starting point to a world tour, went to Indonesia Macau, substituted quite interesting in the the sports, betting world and I'd heard that Co is seven times larger than the in Vegas. I was like, okay. How is that possible have been to Vegas before and it's absolutely insane went to Taiwan. I learned about NFC technology and went back to the States and then home to Ireland.
3:33 So she kind of came back with the idea of NFC be in the future of money payment. So that was in the end of 2010. Had tried a start up there in that space said to what I was kind of trying to do is digitized loyalty cards for coffee shops. So people would just have with their phone. Instead of getting the little paper card that they use, Stick in your wallet and you get a stamp very interesting product way too early and kind of realize that the Samsung Galaxy 2 was also launched in Europe with it with NFC. Then at the last minute they weren't actually no we're not going to do that in Europe because the technology just wasn't here you know even recently Apple had been brought up by the the EU for locking down there in a sea trip. So even if I had tried to struggle on, I would have been very, very tough.
4:14 So yeah. We're concerned us for a number of years, went back and did a masters when I was building the DNA. Teeth product of a teach myself Android coding and we thought through the University of San Francisco. So I was like, okay, I've kind of given up on on the startup. Maybe I'll just go to San Francisco absorb the culture. Sit down a few of these classes but turns out it was just kind of a once-off. But what I was on the University of San Francisco website, came across this Masters. That was three sister universities, so studied in Barcelona Taiwan and San Francisco. So yeah, can you use that as a jumping off point to get into deeper into education. So when I Finished that I did a start up again, which is part of the textures and learned a lot about actual.
4:55 Okay. You have this idea. How did you actually execute whereas a master's in entrepreneurship management as good as it was your kind of reading Harvard Business Review papers, so it's very much on the high level, kind of sight. So when that ended, I did a gamification kind of program that was through the University of Pennsylvania and University of Stanford to machine learning, kind of program, because I kind of identified those two. And in 2012, Was being hugely influential for the next kind of 10 years. And I guess we're still kind of seeing that today that machine learning and Ai and gamification are, you know, they're quite opposite but they do great things for technology and products, very good and then getting going with your sports Tech live podcast in 2019 doing the techstars sports Tech newsletter.
5:43 Those experiences leading up into the beginnings of live tool. Now you founded live dual a number of years back. Back. But it feels like it's just started in the last. Probably your to pivoting a bit and ramping up into web three. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So, I shaved bought the domain. How, what? I was still in University, in 2008. Okay, so, just move, yeah, fell in. Love with the idea of everything going live goes, kind of what I was doing, sports, betting, Arbitrage and sports betting trading, you know, everything was becoming, but the live-action, you know, before that it was all about, you know, getting her bed in before The match started of the game started, but then there was kind of innovation in the industry of, I guess, kind of real-time delivery of prices, and being able to execute trades.
6:29 So, yeah, I just love the idea of the live aspect and then the Dual kind of sight and was people love having their own opinions. When you kind of mash those together, you know, people have not an adversarial, a kind of conversation but the beauty of it supports dissolves, the great debate, people who have different opinions on, even just seeing a game, whether someone paid well or not, people who have opposing opinions, so let your kind of pivoted around multiple different kind of ideas. Sports betting was actually where I kind of started but of see the regulatory stance in the world right now is very different to what it was in 2014 us have legalized. So you know, that's a huge opportunity when I was trying to raisins in San Francisco, in 2014, it was basically like America will never legalize, you know, it's just one of those things that it's just not gonna happen.
7:14 So, you have been in this sport space for a long time. Reach out to techstars actually, before they had a sports Tech program. Say, Hey, I'll do the sports, that newsletter free and they're like, no, it's not something we're interested in. And then you know they have three sports like programs in the last kind of three years or so maybe four years and so Indianapolis Melbourne and Minnesota or Minneapolis say I've been doing that for three years and it's a great way for me to kind of stay on top of what's happening because the world is ports. Heck is so broad. You know, it's sports betting, it's streaming, it's a RV or metaverse, crypto marketing, social media data, Hardware, Are becoming it's it's everything. So it's a great way for me to kind of stay on top of all the trends and who's doing deals with to Very good.
7:57 We're going to come back to what is live duel in a minute, but, you know, just rounding out looking at your backstory. Well, and seeing the financial background that I want to be a traitor. I went through that same experience myself, well as well, back in the 80s and 90s and then getting this multiple different set of experiences in education and immersive activities that you were involved with that all have combined into what you're doing right now. Just seems like Right story, Laura I want to hear from you as well. Over the last ten years in the u.s. space in product design. Why don't we bring you into the loop here as well? In terms of how you got to this point? Yeah, yeah.
8:42 Well back, when I started I actually wanted to become an artist but okay. Yeah. Which is quite different but very similar and I'll tell you why artists needs to have skills obviously to paint and Draw. But the core of being an artist is being able to observe analyze and to create something new based on what you observed and this part of the creation and analyzing is very useful. When you are doing a product which is for people to use obviously digital products as well. So, I didn't want to be a starving artist because I didn't like that lifestyle and I understood that you could.
9:27 All these skills in order to make something that it's needed on today's economy. And that's why I design came in. And I joined an IT company that was eight years ago. But before that, I also have my own head of my own little start at where it was the beginning, where people really started using smartphones like around 10 years ago. And I really liked that interactive part of your product because you're building something that's truly people. Really use and looking at how people use it and then okay, I can do it better and observing that and creating something that is alive. It gives you so much pleasure and I don't know, that's a super interesting combination there.
10:12 Laura in the you know, the origins of wanting to be an artist and that where you're creating things. The I just wore the here just appreciates and put it that much thought into something so that you can have this. Flat medium or perhaps, sound medium, what it sounds like in your case. It's light medium that you know that that someone can appreciate and enjoy. But then turning on the interactivity angle. Yeah sure. Basically it's the evolution of art. But if this is a commercial use and I think people are abandoning not really going in the museum, consuming art also on the phones, their laptops listening and All that different ways to interact that are present today and being able to create something that people really use. It's the best thing you can do as an artist actually, but I'm not an artist.
11:08 Obviously, I think you might still be an artist, so will, you know, it don't sell yourself short but, you know, just looking at your background and seeing you move through, 2012 2013, 14 into 15, you know, as a designer freelancer digital Shiner and then for about seven years it with sofa score. Yeah. I tell us a little bit about that and how that's kind of unfolded for you in terms of how you ended up meeting. Well, yeah sure. So at the time I wanted to join sulfur score it had already 1.5 million active users so it wasn't small. But when I left it was about 20 million active users, we can actually a huge number of users and It's fun to look at all the comments that people have on your product and also doing user research with so many users. It's great planning the product for so many users and any change that you want to make and how people react to those changes deciding what to implement first. Also based on comments and also based on popularity of certain sports or a feature, always comparing yourself to competition and And also, when you do something, when you have a design that people start copying and then, you know, you did something all that.
12:33 Actually, it was fun to be copied by someone else. And so, I still see a lot of my ideas and things that I changed in The Way live score. Looks that other apps are using and still even though I'm not in the company anymore, I still look at my designs, their eyes. Yeah, appreciate your own art. Can you show us that? And it's really fun when I see other people looking at it, much more than, you know, the way I consumed it because I always just have the eye that still analyzes what I did. But others are not so much analyzing, they're just enjoying it, or using it as a tool for an everyday lives, which is great, very good, very good.
13:24 And then we'll Don't you may be kind of round this out here and bring us together with how you and Laura got together. Yeah, for sure. So last September, my friend from University, phenol studied with him in Barcelona, lived with him in Barcelona and then we travel to Taiwan in San Francisco. He got married. So I was over in Barcelona for his wedding and obviously was during the pandemic and had been nowhere in about 18 months. I was like, okay we're gonna use this as a holiday you know jumping off point of Two days for the wedding. But let's say in Barcelona for an extra week like I do, when I go anywhere I'm always looking up Meetup or Eventbrite, just to see what's happening in that City that I'm in and turns out there was a sports betting conference.
14:06 So I used my text areas Sports egg, live background. I say hey I'm from the media any chance of a free ticket and they went yeah, that's absolutely fine. But can you include a link in our in the digest at help promote it. So got free tickets went along and there was a bunch of startups there and sofa score was there and I've been a user of silver score for For a number of years and just have been obsessed to bit about the design and how they, I guess, kind of take pretty generic Sports data and turn them into pretty charts and data visualizations to help me as a sports fan. Can understand what's happening on the pitch. So can I spoke with someone from sofa score did kind of a profile on them for the newsletter? But it was kind of asking questions about who's the designer? You know.
14:50 I use it as such. Great product speaking with Emma from sofa score. So I reached out to her Exit on LinkedIn and then found Laura through Emma, and then it was messaging with Laura LinkedIn after we connected you. So they I'm actually meeting Emma tonight for a glass of wine after work. So we kind of made arrangements Center to kind of meet up and explain the product in more detail and kind of showed the designs that I did. Because during the first lock turn, I did a ui/ux course. So have very, very basic skills there, but I think it was enough to kind of convey the message of what I'm trying to build. That's the way to do it, you know, the power of the network, right? Yeah. Get out there and Well, go in with an educated mindset. First on what it is that you're looking for? Now it's great. And Laura how did you feel about connecting with Willa first? Yeah well I really like the idea because it was basically all that I knew already.
15:41 Also I was kind of new in the blockchain to but it's a year now and you know how things in the blockchain world are very fast in a year, you can really get to learn a lot and the idea of merging those Two things into one prediction Market. I liked it so from the very start. So basically the idea was so great that I said, okay, sure, let's do that. Good and then Alex, your CTO. Tell us how you brought him into the mix as well. Yes, it was funny. We met John Hill at the start of the, the techstars program at the former LinkedIn evangelist. And, yeah, I guess, LinkedIn extraordinaire. I've had to power the network and building relationships.
16:23 So after it did start a weekend and Francisco. After I did my masters, I kind of got involved came back to Ireland decided. Hey the cork ecosystem isn't as well connected to, this should be in prison 2013. So decided to run started pretending. It was kind of a very good successful weekend, but after that, I kind of took the next step in the startup weekend ecosystem, and that's becoming a facilitator. So of facilitated events, all throughout Europe, Canada, America, UK, Etc. So in 2018 or 2017, I think of As Tech started started, doing founder Khan in Europe, which was in Berlin, but they just acquired startup weekend as well. So they decided to do a facilitator, Khan and John Hill represented in both rooms for the founders and for the facilitators.
17:11 And so he showed his skills of how to make use of our Network. So that's how I found out Alex essentially. So I was looking at the market of prediction markets, found a successful competitor. Check the box of when you're looking for someone they're X company. You check the box for for that competitor looked for react. So I was okay reacted, probably the technology we're going to reuse and I think probably only like two people who showed up, Alex is one of them. Wow. So I kind of reached out to him set up, a zoom call, kind of explain the idea. And where was kind of coming from and yeah, he loved it. So we just wow, we'd gotten the Grant from be Pro Network. So kind of give us an initial funds so I could speak to Laura and speak to Alex and say, Say, hey, we've made some little progress, but I will need your help to unlock the idea and start putting things in motion from a product perspective. Hey everyone, this is Pete.
18:09 Let me tell you about the folks at Phillip. Lee few years ago. Is that my first Venture Capital industry dinner in Dublin and honestly I felt a bit lost. I bumped into Andrews is Ali. One of the partners at Phillip Lee. He bought me a pint introduced me to the team and they took me under their wing that take you under their wing approach has been what I've heard consistently from fintech. And crypto startups who I know have worked with Phillip Lee and Dublin in London to help them wrap the right legal framework around their business. But Raising and Regulatory needs and I can't recommend them enough. Get in touch with a team at Phillip Lee dot IE or on money. Never sleeps. That IE /. Phillip Lee to learn more.
18:49 That's fantastic, that's fantastic. And that, you know, we're all sitting there in the techstars cohort. The beginning of April and listening to John. He'll tell the story about how to use LinkedIn to the fullest to find people, right at find customers, find Talent. You would already done that. Yeah. And I have to thank John afterwards because I didn't even realize I was doing that and they just kind of sat through session multiple years before it just became a habit of what I've done and I'm doing similar right now for on the marketing side. Wow, Community manager. Type Grill. Yeah, powerful stuff. Shadow John Hill. Very good. All right. We'll listen, tell us. What is live tool? Well, and why is it unique?
19:32 And why is this? Something that just makes so much sense for the A of you to be working on right now. Yeah, so I left you a lizard, E5, pirate Sports prediction market and life, an engagement platform. So I guess the deep buzzwords that please do. Yeah. So prediction markets are, you know, sports betting companies, they could be stock markets and so we're focused very much on the sports side of things. What I love about sports is Everyone said, oh the outcome, everyone thinks they might know Lyoko more. Everyone will have an opinion on what's going to happen. So being able to gamify at that kind of side of things and what else are having a financial incentive for the winners or the person who has the most knowledge, ER, can predict the future. Because when you look at markets, you know, financialization of them makes them more efficient over time or at least that's the, the general concept behind the stock market. So yeah, as a huge sports fan and as a former Trader, I kind of wanted to bring the two together and see what benefits. Having the two together could make. So when you look at the sports betting industry, you know, it's very much The House Always Wins type philosophy and the reason they were in is because there's a include a 5 to 20%. What is essentially a fee into the big picture? He had the vague exactly for from America, don't know what the European kind of version is but by removing the house you don't need to charge such high rates. So we believe that can deliver a better product and to the end-user that they've Affair will come. So when I was watching March Madness, A flip of a coin on the spread better dollar to win 80 cents. That's a very terrible result,
21:05 because it's a coin toss. You should be hidden close to the dollar in return, right? So we believe with using the power of D Phi and the blockchain better dollar when 96 cents of see there's still kind of fees involved but that's a 20% uplift from traditional Sports books. Got it you got me thinking now. Well you really got me thinking now is there a way that this can go that says you can actually get better at predicting the outcome? Sports games. Yeah, absolutely. Yo, we see in the data explosion in sports, I guess us. Ports are probably led the way with all the data that comes out of each individual. Us sport, like, baseball is pretty much a game stats. Mmm, hence money both, they're able to sign players that were undervalued.
21:47 That delivered them a World Series. Every season in say soccer, there's new stats being created and being marketed essentially, you know, Amazon of done, a great job of so called next-gen. It's, they're doing it for the NFL during a rugby. They're doing it for soccer. They're doing it for formula. One because each individual game is producing so much data. Each individual data point is something that can be tracked and measured and correlated and put into a model that in the future might help people predict better than the average for sports games. And we haven't even kind of gotten into the areas around the data that's coming off the individual athlete and just kind of a big debate right now of who owns the data coming out from the Appellate so heart race. Rest recovery, VO2 max has distance covered. All these kind of interesting data points that could potentially form part of a prediction model to help people predict sports.
22:38 But what I love about prediction markets is it's the wisdom of the crowd. So we read that book when I was in first year economics. And you know, the theory is get a large enough pool of people to make a prediction, will be better than any one person or any one expert in that group. That's what I really love about prediction markets and markets in general. Is that whatever the price says or whatever, the trading figure is, that's everyone's best. Guess at that moment in time, doesn't mean it's right. But that's the combined wisdom of hundreds of thousands or hundreds of thousands of participants say so. Yeah, very excited to see the coming together of prediction markets Plus data. And you know, when we did when I did the machine learning thing, it was all about building.
23:22 Those models of taking in data points to have an output and I love to kind of get back there. Yeah, yeah, no, it's fascinating and I'm thinking Laura that there is a responsibility here. This product designer not even responsibility but at a strong need to say okay will and I are riffing right now on statistical models and this incredible complexity of the art of the possible or the stat of the possible, whatever you want to call it. And there's then the need to abstract all that complexity away and put something in the users hands. That is simple and easy for them to understand. And How do you balance this complexity with all? That is possible with data and statistics and the wisdom of the crowd like you're saying we'll with the need to create a usable product that surprises and delights people. How do you do that?
24:11 Yeah, so first of all, of course you need to understand all the data and what they mean, and think about new ways to use the data and the creativity, there is a with people who are very knowledgeable to decide, okay? How can we use the data and when you know how and when you know what's the main goal with the data, you gathered, you want to obstruct, everything that people don't need all the info that they don't really need to know exactly. And to do that in a way that really people do understand. And for that, when you have your sketches, your ideas, or with all the data and the views, and the graphs, you have to test that you just have.
24:58 Show it to as many people as you can. Ideally 15-5 is already enough to show if it's working or not. But 115, people really understand what you wanted to show then that's perfect. So basically the process of gathering the load so my ideas and then to narrow it down to and sometimes it will not work and you have to be you have to be ready to bin all the work you did. If it doesn't work if people don't Understand it. It's more. It's more of an obstruction for as user experience into because sometimes you just don't need the extra breath. And yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:39 How many conversations do you need to do to get to 15 the get it? Well, teaching this on people's. Okay, no. I thought you made you go out to like a thousand people and you try to get to 15 that would say oh yeah I get that. I really hope that makes sense to me. You don't need to show it to so many people. I gotcha. I gotcha. People will already show almost 100 of problems of the sea or user experience or, yeah, because that way, if you didn't do it, he wouldn't expect for some problems to come up so quickly, then repeat themselves, but they do when you start showing people, you get it in the much clearer way and you would never tell that five people will would have the same issue but they They do.
26:29 So, that's something that you want to tackle as fast as possible. I got you, that makes sense and willed, shifting gears a little bit. Why don't you tell us about who's replacing the house, right? When you think about the house that provides liquidity to be able to take different sides of the BET? And like like we said, take the vague as well with live dual. What is the plan for replacing the house? And replacing that liquidity? Yeah, no, it's a very interesting kind of problem. When you remove the house, you remove quite a lot. So when I first came up with the idea for the It was I guess they kind of started the Game. Stop Mania. I'm not that kind of shower thought of oh like Robin Hood has done an amazing job of taking a complicated financial transaction and make it a very seamless process.
27:10 So I was like that would be a very interesting thing to do for the World of Sports. So what down that rabbit hole of what of Robin Hood built, a prediction market for sports and Esports. Well that's where the idea came out of. So the crypto side came secondary to that because I was facing the issue of liquidity provision. So it was a pure Or exchange, you need to find people on both sides of the market. So that obviously wasn't going to work because that's really, really hard to scale. This, you have to find a Boston Red Sox fan to match with every Yankees fan. So they actually can trade against each other. Whereas, I'm not sure which team is the better team, but I'll, I know comment on that, this week, you'll come to learn that this week. Yeah, I might use a soccer example, so, so I'm, but, no, really?
27:50 You would go. Go ahead and use the Red Sox and Yankees if you want. But, I'm just gonna click like, and talk about how the Red Sox are performing. We don't talk about the Red Sox. Yeah. Yes we can Spurs are doing really well, looks like they're going to get Champions League, fingers crossed. I haven't jinxed it, but there might be 100 people that want to bet on Spurs, get in the Champions League because they're, you know, two points ahead. But one game to go and a relatively easy game, the end, there's 10 people might only want to bet on Arsenal. They've hired two fixtures or two points behind is only one game left. So, in a traditional exchange, 10 of those trades, could get mash-off it off each other and then the another 90 Spurs bets that will kind of go unmatched. Traditionally, I've see if it's against the house, the house would take the other side of those 90 bets.
28:34 But when you go for a peer to peer exchange, there's any bets that will go on Match, which is a terrible experience, obviously. So that was a key kind of part of life duels, like, how do we solve that issue? And then the more I kind of got into decentralised finance and the world. The crypto is like, okay, that's where the liquidity prisons going to come from. So part of the life, drill strategy is to attract liquidity providers, people who put in money stake it will create Liquidity pool. And then the end-users effectively trading against that liquidity pool. So we'll move that liquidity to the different markets where there's demand. So this weekend might be okay despite his verses are some example then on Sunday evening, it might be the Red Sox versus the Yankees and basic a virtuous cycle kind of moving around, picking up the vague and delivering a return for the liquidity providers.
29:22 Yeah. And as long as the yield that you're paying to liquidity providers is at the right level where the Economics of your platform, Works where the fees that you're taking in your generating enough. He's in order to pay that yield but still keep a profit going. Then you've got a nice little mini economy going there, which is the nature of web, 32 building an economy rather than building a company. Yeah, exactly. And I guess by economics background, I've been very focused on the kind of aspect from the very, very beginning. Because essentially you're creating your own closed economy, I'll see there's kind of externalities and external factors at play but, you know, essentially you're Keep people in your economy and growth over time. Very good thinking about how big this can all get right in that when you know, that decentralized element liquidity pools, replacing the house, and that expecting live dual to be incredibly successful with that, well, in Laura and Alex in In Absentia as well. That it shout out to Alex C is at permissionless in Palm Beach. As I understand, I just saw a picture of him with a couple of other folks from the techstars cohort. So shout out to Lou.
30:28 Lucas Bruhl and Victor Lee who are there in Palm Beach with him. So just to use the example from baseball, as we talked about this whole Moneyball angle, that there is a stat in baseball called wins above replacement or wa are War. And what that basically is, is that how many wins does a particular player? Contribute, what are their statistics in aggregate responsible for in terms of the number of games that their team wins base? On their performance in the game and that it's a very, very complicated statistical but it's used a lot. Best players sometimes responsible for 10 wins per year, okay?
31:09 And if a major league baseball team has 81 games per year in their home stadium, another 81 games away. This is not including the playoffs, then you can say that, okay? If they're responsible for 10 wins per year, just to that half, and half and save you responsible for five wins in the home stadium out of 80. One games per year, that one single player, okay? And so what's the revenue that that team makes four tickets for those 81 games that they play? And the better teams win, more more bums on seats. The more tickets sold so you can back into what should I pay somebody, right? You can say that based upon the average number of wins, they're going to create a win. Will put X number of people in seats and create that much in ticket sales and advertising Revenue. TV deal in licensing, deals, all that type of stuff. You can actually go to that length. Do this.
32:02 I think that's, you know, a lot of that type of math is used and how baseball Executives come up with salaries that they're going to pay to their players. You could go to the nth degree with Statistics, that you're going to gather here and what you make available for people to be able to predict. And then also folks on the other side to be able to provide liquidity for. Have you put much thought into how this looks. And you know, when The liquidity pools do take over for the house and what this element of decentralization can do to unlock a lot more value in this space. Yeah, it's a really, really interesting points because data is exploding, every data point is a potential market for us. But I guess to appoint earlier, you know, we need to be kind of laser focused and make it as easy as possible for people to come on board.
32:51 So we're going to be launching with three different markets for a typical sports or Esports game. You know who's going to win it'll be over and under a certain Home run number or in soccer at certain goal number and then the spray it till the favorite - half a point or half a goal, the underdog plus or minus the the opposite amount. So the reason we're doing that is that we want to focus our liquidity into the primary markets and 80% of what's bet on at the moment comes from those three markets because the key thing about those markets is that they go live and in play and will be active from two weeks for the game. Starts right up to the final whistle. So that kind of that live element is where the lion share of liquidity kind of comes into the market.
33:36 So we're going to focus on those initially, but then, as you say like there's there's so much data, there's so much potential markets and I guess fantasy sports have taken a lead here of taking data and turning it in the gamification into a game of competition and bragging rights ham for friends again, friends or friends against other groups. So yeah, over time we will kind of look more at the the esoteric kind of one's of Specific players, you know, we are a, is a big one in basketball points, rebounds, and assists. We have an over and under and that I think would be phenomenal. But for us, for right now, we need to focus for the users into the the primary Market. But we also need to focus our liquidity. So we're not having loads of different little silos and splintering off into a market that might only generate, you know, 1% of of the action.
34:24 But Orion as we grow and scale that becomes totally possible. This is the typical really humbling conversation. I have with Founders a lot of the time which appeal is an awesome idea. But you know what? We got to focus. Yeah. Which is so true. That's why it's like okay, stick this one in number 37. On the backlog. Yeah. Yeah, it's all there. It's all there. I've gone through numerous things in my mind and yeah there's huge potential there but yeah the starting point three markets. Keep very good, very good. No I get that. The so yeah three markets getting liquidity. Going Laura from a product perspective. Dave, and the user perspective, what is the biggest objective for 2022 and hands? Possibly the biggest challenge right now to get that done. Get the initial 1,000 users.
35:09 Yeah, that's it. Yeah, that's it. That's that's the story because it grows exponentially from there because if 1000 people really love your product then you are, you know that you're able to scale it so true, so true. I mean Lori, you're so right, it's about getting people who absolutely love your product. Want to use it all the time. We want to tell that people about it, you know? Yeah. Because that's was also how I saw that surface current grow at the beginning because when you are starting out you don't want to overuse so much money for marketing purposes, it because you're still focused on building the product. If you're doing a big marketing before having a product that's good enough then then I think it's gonna fail but that's just my opinion. Maybe people I just use marketing. Much as they can.
35:59 But if it grows in a natural way where people are recommending your product, and they are friends are also using it, it's more stable structure to build forward, rather than having huge marketing, a lot of new users. But also they might not stayed and not use it. And if you have one person who came in quite early with your product, you have also a loyal Hello, oil Trend who will use your product and also when you have a contact with the users and you reaching out to hear their perspective and you implement, you, you make the product better based on their opinions, they feel the product is right for them, they feel better connection with the whole brand and the product. So, also a way of the centralizing is not only the centralizing violence in the product is the centralizing, the way, the Product gets built.
37:00 Obviously as we are overlooking, the product deciding some things but also giving it to other people to decide, which is the next big feature that we're going to implement which is the next Market or sports that we want to have in the app and when most of the users want, I don't know. Baseball before we go do that. Yeah, no that's feels very much like a dow. So live Downs that alive dual Christmas. I do own life. Killed our tell. So, yeah, the good good. That's awesome. Listen, I'd it's, you know, one of the things that I always think about when I'm when I'm doing these conversations is that, you know, they were at a certain point in time with any of the founders that we talked to on this podcast. And that there is so much energy and enthusiasm and optimism and expectation here as to where we all go next and given given the chat we had today, I'm even more fueled with that. So with that, I'd like to move to the last question that we asked everybody on this podcast which is what is one thing that we wouldn't expect to know about you and will we could start with you.
38:07 Yeah. I think Hugh thought I was going to be shorter. He's like God, you look a lot taller in real life than you do and zoom. So maybe a huge Pacific on people on the program as well. When I kind of said that I'm more of an introvert. People are like, no way. Never have guessed that. So that's maybe another one because I'm quite, so sure, but definitely love the, the more introverted kind of Lifestyle, but yeah. I guess the fun fact about me is that I collect Flags. Yeah, every country I go to, I pick up whether it's a small, tiny little one or a full-size one, not sure where I kind of came from, but just love the idea of flags and it resonating. So the Stars and Stripes, you know, what does that work in you? And every time for the July, you know, everyone's got their stars and stripes and the same for every country.
38:51 You know, there's such passion and emotion, that could be put into a rectangle of three different colors. You know, the Holy Wars are fought. Over us and I just find it fascinating. So, yeah, Regional Flags national flags. Yeah, I think there are three amazing, that's amazing. We were my wife and I, when we were traveling, we would buy a fridge magnet, and every single country. And then we got our kitchen redone. The front panel of our fridge is what the more fridge magnets. So signature feature of a good place to put all your flags. Well yes oh yeah I didn't factor in where I was going to store them or we're going to put them. So they're all just kind of like a full day. It and stuff in the back, awesome drawer. That's great Laura.
39:32 What about you? Which one thing people wouldn't expect to know about you. That's my big wish is to be part of the rock band. All right. Yeah yeah, yeah, since I was a kid but never happened and I don't know if it happens when I'm 80, I'm still happy. All right, well we're gonna get you pretty close because demo day for the launch pool, where three techstars accelerator Be at the button factory in Dublin, which is a great venue where I've seen many a gig. So we're getting, you're pretty close to that. But we'll see if we need to get my kids down with their guitars because they're much better at it than me. But you're more of a singer. Or are you a instrument player? Yeah, I play the guitar but not well enough. Okay.
40:19 All right, we can all work on it together. So we'll listen folks, absolutely loved talking to the two of you today in depth about live dual. And I learned something in every conversation. So thank you. Is awesome. To have you both on the show and I know that I'll be talking to you later today. Cheers, thanks a million for having this piece. Thank you. That does it for this week, folks, thanks to Villa Laura for opening up their minds. Help us figure out why they do what they do link to get in touch with Will endure and learn more about live. Dual are in the show notes on our website money, never sleeps, that IE. So check us out online. Also, thanks to Conan Brophy, from create sound for mixing and editing.
41:00 This episode Conan is an excellent medium and to get in touch with when you're thinking about launching your own podcast. As for me, I'm an early stage, startup investor and advisor focused on where fintech meets crypto and crypto meets web 3. If you'd like to talk to me about your business, drop me a line on info. Money never sleeps that. I finally till next time. Thanks for listening. See you
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